• Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf
• Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Online
• Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Download
• Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Free

David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and how mathematics can be used to get an edge in betting.

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There is an urban legend of mathematical modelling of soccer matches. It is the legend of the mathematical genius, the Einstein of gambling, who has worked out the formula for beating the bookmakers and winning money. If only, the legend goes, you can find the tips that this person can provide, the source of the magic equation, you can become rich beyond your wildest dreams.

After I published the book Soccermatics last year, a few people seemed to believe I might hold the magical equation. I would get messages on Twitter and emails to my work address asking me if I could help them with tips and advice. I was a professor of mathematics who had studied soccer, maybe I knew the secret?

A simple way to find value in the betting market

In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches.

The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else.

The way I did it was much simpler. I looked at the odds and found a very small but significant bias in how they were set. Bookmakers and bettors hadn’t paid enough attention to predicting the draw in soccer.

Maybe it is because of the popularity of the Over/Under markets. Maybe it is because bettors don’t like betting on a draw. But, whatever the explanation, it turned out that draws in the Premier League were not properly priced.

• Read: How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market.

Below is a plot of the real frequency of draws in four seasons of the Premier League (2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15) and the prediction of draws implied by the bookmaker’s odds.

This figure is created by taking the odds provided by four leading bookmakers (including Pinnacle), converting odds to implied probabilities and then looking at the difference between the probability of a home win and an away win.

It turns out that when two well-matched teams meet (i.e. the probability of a home win is only slightly bigger than the probability of away win) then draws are under-priced (circles above red line). When matches are skewed so there is a strong a favourite (i.e. the probability of one team or the other winning is larger than the other) then draws are over-priced (circles below red line).

Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a value bet. If one team is much stronger than the other, don’t bet on the draw (betting on the favourite is normally the smartest move in this case).

Testing out the theory of under-priced draws

That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. Below are profits for this model for the 2015/16 season.

I tripled my money over the season. Well, actually I didn’t bet throughout the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas.

Soccermatics came out in May 2016, just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after. Here is the result.

Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Not losing money is a small achievement in itself, where the odds are in the bookmaker’s favour, but obviously making money is the objective for most bettors.

Lessons learn from using my model

There are four lessons to be learnt from my model.

Firstly, I didn’t make money by creating a magic formula. Although I did write down a single equation that I then used to decide my bets (it is footnote 17 for chapter 12 in the book if you don’t want to read the rest of it) this equation came from an analysis of the odds.

The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.

If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.

Secondly, I wasn’t just lucky. The original model was consistent with the previous four years of bookmaker’s odds. I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data.co.uk. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work.

There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.

Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. Maybe the traders at Pinnacle and other bookmakers read my book and thought “we’ve been pricing draws wrong. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend….move the draw odds up by 0.1.” That’s all it takes and my small margin disappears.

This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book). There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.

My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear.

Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.

• How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide.

There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.

Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for.

In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.

If you want to learn more about David Sumpter's work you can follow @Soccermatics on Twitter.

(how to win soccer bets by betting on draws)

Over the past year, I have led an exclusive group of soccer bettors to beat the bookies by betting on draws in various football leagues around the world. European, Asian, South American football leagues… you name it. All we do is bet on draws!

Using my uniquely formulated soccer betting system, we have consistently made unprecedented levels of profits. In terms of ROI, it’s simply CRAZY.

Armed with the single-minded focus of predicting draws, we have developed a truly profitable soccer betting system based entirely on draws. Here’s a glimpse of how we ended a good week of betting with a net profit of $1,308.

In my book, I go into details about why I ONLY bet on draws (1X2 betting) out of dozens of betting options. But suffice to say, you may already have some hints of how profitable it can be — if you have arrived on this page via Google Search. Mathematical David Sumpter goes as far as to say that backing draws was “the main source of [his] profits”, calling it a bias in the market.

So back to the purpose of this article. Along the way, my team and I have discovered certain reliable patterns that you must know if you want to predict draw results in soccer. What are some important “red flags” when it comes to spotting a potential match that is going to end up in a tie?

Here are 6 Top Tips (+ 1 SUPER IMPORTANT CAVEAT) to pay attention to when wagering on the draw.

Sure, the first thing we all do when looking for potential draws to bet on is to look at the 1X2 odds. The lower the odds for a draw, the higher the possibility of it happening. At least the implied probability according to the bookies. But take into consideration the odds for *Under 2.5 goals* as well. It’s a pretty good signal for low-scoring games.

Statistically, soccer matches that are low-scoring are much more likely to end up in draws. And in the long run, you will increase your winning ratio by focusing on games that are going to have less goals.

As I have alluded to in the past, certain soccer/football leagues in the world have a higher propensity for draws. Don’t be mistaken, these out-of-the-ordinary leagues (and teams) change every season. So do not treat historical data as the gospel!

In fact, trends may change halfway through the season. Especially after mid-season signings in the January transfer window and managerial changes. Whenever a team goes on an incredible run of draws and then fire the manager, do NOT assume the same trend will continue with a new manager. Always observe what happens in the new coach’s first few games in charge.

Weak(er) teams playing at home are often happy to settle for a draw. Especially at home grounds that are notoriously difficult for even the strongest of away teams.

Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf

Don’t neglect the marginal advantage playing on home soil brings. Whenever you check the current form and league table, make sure you sort the data according to “Home” and “Away” performances. I like to pay attention to their respective Home/Away Goal Difference too.

Do the same when checking out the past results history between the two teams.

In some lower-tier leagues, teams are notorious for covert (or even blatant) match-fixing. These tend to occur toward the end of the season when there’s nothing left to play for. For teams that are comfortably positioned in mid-table (not fighting for European qualifications or struggling against relegation), the motivation is all but lost. Some of the star players may just be looking to avoid injuries as they have an eye on a high profile transfer in the new season.

The temptation to “throw away” games is even present in certain top flight leagues. Italy tend to have that reputation as being a hot bed for match-fixing.

Regardless of the presence of dirty tricks or manipulation, look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season. Specifically, look out for games between two teams who BOTH have nothing much at stake to play for.

This may seem obvious enough, but tends to be neglected. Especially useful for beginners who have little to no knowledge of soccer. How do you spot games that will finish all even? Well, look out for matches where the market can’t seem to decide who’s going to come out victorious. In this case, the odds for both teams to win will be pretty close, with neither a Home Win nor Away Win dipping below 2.0.

It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the hundreds of matches on offer daily. So when you are short of time and don’t have hours to spend on match analysis, simply filter out potential draws using this step (time needed: 30 seconds).

If you aren’t already aware, bookmakers have a built-in “House Advantage” in their odds. Most bookies give themselves around 5% profit margin. This means that on average, they stand to win about $5 on every $100 that their customers bet.

Having multiple bookmakers allow you to choose the best odds for each game, bringing the House Advantage down to 1.5% or lower. Now you only need to be slightly smarter than the House to turn a profit.

(how to use math to beat the bookies)

At the end of the day, these 6 tips can help novice and experienced bettors alike in figuring out which games to wager a draw on.

BUT BUT BUT… listen up. Research has shown that:

“Knowledge of the game is NOT an advantage in sports gambling.”

I didn’t make that up. That’s the conclusion in a 2013 scientific research paper by Prof. Dannon and Dr. Huberfeld at Israel’s Tel Aviv University.

The scientists proved that “neither betting experience nor knowledge of the details of the game provides an advantage to strategic sports gamblers.”

Wow, what the heck does all this mean?

This actually VALIDATED my belief and didn’t come as a surprise to me at all.

Why? Because no matter how you slice it, at the end of the day sports betting IS as random as it gets. That is why in the long run, a group of “knowledgeable” soccer fans wouldn’t perform any better at predicting/forecasting soccer results than a group of no prior knowledge folks.

And that’s exactly what the scientific study found.

What you need is this: A mathematical-based staking system that provides a smart risk management strategy in order to be successful in the soccer prediction business. That’s if you’re serious about beating the bookies in the long-term. Don’t bother if you just want to treat soccer betting as a little flutter here and there for your enjoyment — there’s perfectly fine too.

Why is precisely why I churned out 7 years of hard data and statistics from my personal soccer betting experience, and transformed them into a disciplined staking system. This allows us to place each bet with mathematical precision and ultimately enjoy a very healthy ROI on our betting capital.

Be warned: You need a healthy mindset, bankroll, and some guts to succeed with my strategic betting system. It’s definitely not for everyone, even though the rewards can be huge.

Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Online

Click here to learn more about how I make $100,000 a year betting on draws.

Many people have executed our betting strategy successfully and we play this soccer betting system together as a team.

All bettors in our exclusive group get access to my daily picks (draw selections).

Betting on draws gives you tremendous leverage that can be used to develop a disciplined betting strategy.

The reason I formulated a betting system around this is to beat the bookies. While bookies are known to have “House Advantage” when it comes to any form of gambling or sports betting, they are notoriously bad at predicting draws. This gives ordinary football punters something to exploit.

Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Download

However, ordinary bettors HATE betting on draws (given the boring outcome they have to pray for) and this means that draw odds are often not priced correctly. When odds are overpriced, it leads to the presence of “Value Bets” and is definitely something for serious bettors to take advantage of.

Happy Betting & I’ll see you on the other side.

Live Free Or Die,
J.K. Diego (JKDGO.COM)

Hidden Secrets To Winning Soccer Betting System Pdf Free